Posted by New Delhi: The mystery of the identity whoever ordered the horrific attack at the Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow is yet to be found out, but Kremlin’s investigators seem to be convinced that there was a western link to the attack. They have spoken about the suspects driving towards the Ukraine border, where there was a ‘window’ open for them to get out Russia.
The Russians have underplayed religious identity of the suspects so far arrested, all Tajik and one Kyrgyz, and the US claiming that they were ISIS operatives within an hour of the attack seems to have made them sceptical about the link to the Islamic terrorist organisation.
Guarded revelations
The Russian authorities, while releasing the names of the suspects, have been careful not to identify by their religion, and have underplayed their nationalities, particularly since Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are Russia’s allies, and have been battling fundamentalist threat in their own countries.
Furthermore, Russia is keen to find a connection between the suspects and Ukraine and its western supporters. Moscow’s suspicion about the Ukraine connection is deepened by many Islamic groups, including Chechens fighting along with the Ukraine army during the current conflict. The rather mystifying statement of former Deputy Secretary of state Victoria Nuland in January, that there would be some “nasty surprises” in store for Russia in the New Year, is cited as a sinister warning about the Crocus attack, as well as the March 7 advisory by US to its citizens about “reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow.
Putin’s order to investigators
In order to damp down panic in the wake of the Crocus attack, and racial hostility towards Muslims or Central Asian population in Russia, Putin had in an earlier speech identified the attackers as “radical Islamists” but cautioned investigators to go about their work “without any political bias”.
On Tuesday, he made a further effort to cool down the nationwide public anger, by calling for “mercy and humanism” in the wake of the terrorist attack. That appeal, little reported in the western media, appears to be designed to win over liberals and anti-war politicians in the west, who are against the prolongation of the Ukraine war.
“It is extremely important for us now, when we’re dealing with what happened last Friday, to rely on these values of creativity, humanism and mercy,” Putin said. “They unite us in supporting all victims, in our determination to stay strong and together,” he said at a Kremlin event to honour young artists and teachers”.
Demand for restoring death penalty
Putin’s remarks came even as Russian politicians demanded death penalty for the terror accused and their backers. Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev, who has served as president and prime minister of Russia, vocalised the public sentiment, as did many of the members across the party lines in the Duma, the Russian Parliament.
Duma members Sergey Mironov and Leonid Slutsky proposed organizing a referendum on reinstating capital punishment. Mironov also called for imposing a visa regime for Central Asian countries, as most of the suspected terrorists came from Tajikistan.
The Russian Constitutional court put an embargo on death penalty in 1999, and Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin pointed this out to reject the referendum idea. Unless the court lifts the embargo, the Crocus attack suspects would be jailed, not put to death.
Putin is aware of Russia’s highest court staying the death penalty, and by advocating mercy, though not specifying for whom, he has by implication contrasted the Russian system with those in the west
The Russian Federation is among the 98 countries in the world that don’t carry out death sentences. The US is among the 54 countries that do. In the Russian Federation, no one has been sentenced judicially to a death sentence in the last quarter century. Only Saudi Arabia and the US are countries that execute most people in the world.
Putin keen on scotching xenophobia
Also, by advocating humanistic values, Putin was actually reflecting his apprehension about the rising tide of citizens from the Central Asian states, who can travel freely to Russia, as well as live and work there. Russia is a multi-ethnic nation, with amazing socio-cultural diversity. According to the Russian national census in 2021, the country has 190 distinct ethnic groups, of whom 63 profess Islam, according to a 2006 study by Timothy Heleniak. Obviously, the Russian authorities would like to stamp out any anti-Islamic sentiment that could lead to a backlash, like the Chechen insurgency that took two protracted and brutal wars to be suppressed.
Putin is obviously keen that relationship with those Islamic republics which are part of the Russia-led military alliance Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the economic alliance the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), should break down. CSTO comprises, besides Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Barring Armenia, which is 97 per cent Christian, all others have a predominantly Muslim population.
CA states help Russia beat sanctions
For Russia, the central Asian republics are important to sidestep western sanctions. It accesses western technologies denied to it under the sanctions, including tech goods and chips, through countries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
According to a study by the Begin-Sadat Centre of Bar Ilan University of Israel, In January-August 2022, export of televisions, displays, and projectors from Kazakhstan to Russia increased 312 times, computers 215 times, and phones 88 times.
“Some experts believe that in Central Asia, Kazakhstan has become a hub for re-exporting consumer electronics from the EU to Russia, including for the purpose of extracting chips from them. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have become hubs for re-exporting goods from China to Russia on behalf of Chinese companies that are concerned about direct dealings with Russia due to the risk of secondary sanctions,” the study said.
The Central Asian nations are also a vast source of labour for the grossly underpopulated Russia. Russia is the largest country in the world by land, six times larger than India, and has only a tenth of India’s population at 15 crores.
According to the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center, “Central Asian laborers still constitute a significant portion of labour migrants in Russia, with 350,000 Tajiks, over 630,000 Uzbeks, and 173,000 Kyrgyz working in Russia.” There was a surge of migration of such ethnic groups to Russia in 2023, compared to the previous year, with Uzbekistan witnessing a 72 per cent increase and Tajikistan recording a notable 40% rise, the Center said.
US bid to enter CA
The US has been attempting to build ties with the members of CSTO and EEU, to weaken Russian influence in the region. Under the CSTO protocol, Russia sent troops to Kazakhstan in January 2022 to put down a suspected western-backed regime change attempt following the ouster of long-time ruler Nursultan Nazarbayev.
The US attempt to penetrate Central Asia is a concern with Moscow, and would have certainly influenced Putin’s advice for moderation.
(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone. The opinions and facts in this article do not represent the stand of News9.)